Will There Be a White Christmas This Year?
A Look at the Likelihood of a Snowy Holiday Season Across the US
Nov 6, 2008
"I'm dreaming of a white Christmas... just like the ones I used to know."
So starts the song first performed by Bing Crosby in the 1942 film Holiday Inn. But even though the song seems to infer that "white Christmases" are a thing of a bygone era, in reality for much of the continental United States such events are a rarity.
There are a multitude of reasons why snow falling or on the ground on Christmas is a difficult proposition, and much of it has to do with timing. Other factors contributing to whether or not there is snow are local climate, prevailing weather conditions surrounding the Holidays, and so forth.
It's Only One Day
One of the biggest reasons why it is difficult for there to be snow on Christmas is the fact that its only a single day. To put it in more simple terms, its like trying to hit a bulls eye in the exact same place over and over and over again. While its possible, it's certainly not very likely.
Snow can of course fall on the days preceding Christmas Day, which if the weather conditions were right could remain on the ground on the 25th. But then again, that does not address the issue of timing, which is the hardest issue. In any case, it does require a bit of luck.
Climate Plays a Big Role
As well as good timing, climate plays a significant role in the chance a white Christmas. December for much of the continental United States is a month of change: temperatures are only beginning to accelerate their decline toward winter minimums. A large portion of the country, even in colder climes, will be a little too warm for snow.
This isn't true everywhere however: the climates of the far Northeast, the uppermost Great Lakes, and the Intermountain West often are already cold enough for snow by this time of year that typically 9 of 10 Christmases are white.
The Weather Before the Holidays is Important
In order to overcome the timing and climate issues, the weather in the days and weeks preceding Christmas is quite important to increase the likelihood of a white Christmas. It's no secret that snow needs temperatures near freezing to fall, so that is a necessity. In addition, the ground needs to be cold enough for the snow to stick, or it will melt on contact.
Thus, colder weather is needed before the holiday to ensure any snow that does fall will stick. In addition, a stormier pattern will also help: that way, even if snow does not fall exactly on Christmas Day itself there will be plenty of chances for snow to fall before then.
Best Chances for a White Christmas Across the US
There is not a significant area of the country where there is a high probability of snow on Christmas. However, the area of better than a 50-50 chance is substantial. If one lives north of a line from Central Massachusetts west through the Dakotas and onward to much Washington State (also including the Rocky Mountain region), chances are above 50%.
South of this and down to a line extending from Delaware west through Kansas and into Nevada chances fall dramatically, but average anywhere from 10% to 50%. South of this line, snow on Christmas - or for any other time of the year for that matter - is extremely rare.
White Christmases have long captured the imagination of many - perhaps long before Bing Crosby crooned that famous refrain. But at the same time, its important to realize that it takes a lot for it to happen, and is a lot less common than most think.
