Climate Predictions Winter 2008
New Year Climatic Outlook on Temperatures, Precipitation and Drought
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts the continuing effects of a moderate La Niña, bringing more rain and snow to the NW and extended drought to the SW and NE U.S.
NOAA Winter 2008 Outlook For U.S.
December 2007 through February 2008
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA has predicted above-average temperatures for the United States this winter. The national temperature average will be 4 percent warmer than the 30-year normal. This prediction for warmer temperatures is similar to last winter. A moderate La Niña has been detected and will continue into the first part of 2008. The La Niña effect will cause higher precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. There will also be above-average temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern states, continuing a long term warming trend for the region. NOAA predicts drier conditions in the Southwestern and Southeastern states, continuing the current drought conditions.
Why Predict Climate Future?
Climatologists use climate predictions to
- monitor global warming
- help with agricultural planning
- monitor droughts
- facilitate management of water resources
Climate predictions can be very important when forecasting hurricane and fire seasons. Climatologists predict how one season may differ from the average season on record. Climatologists monitor these seasonal climate shifts and variations, determining yearly climate shifts or those occurring over longer periods of time. They use this information to determine why seasonal climates differ from one year to another and so on.
Measurements Needed to Predict Climate
In order to more accurately predict climate events, climatologists need certain measurements:
- ocean temperatures
- atmospheric conditions
- sea levels, global and local
- local temperatures
- local rainfall
- ice sheet thickness and temperature
- permafrost depth (permanently frozen ground, such as in parts of Alaska and Canada)
Typically, climate predictions are used to measure rainfall rates, climate sequencing, sea levels and temperatures and the ENSO cycle of El Niño and La Niña. Although El Niño is difficult to predict, once indications are observed, climatologists can predict its length and intensity. In 1997, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service, correctly predicted the impact of El Niño for the coming winter. It became one of the strongest El Niño seasons on record.
Long-term Climate Predictions
Basing forecasts on climate trends is one way climatologists can predict the future climate. Trends are defined by the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center as “the difference between the average of the most recent 10 (15) years of observations” for the variable, such as precipitation or temperature, and the 30 year average, for a given location and time of year. Climatologists also use mathematical models based on collected data, when making long-term climate predictions. Some models tend to be exceptionally complex and in-depth. Many variables can play into the most simple climate model.
